INTERACTIVE DISPLAYS
NFL PLAYOFFS

The display below represents a predictive model for the 2010 NFL playoffs. The display is arranged much like the playoff "brackets". The variation, however is that each node, rather than displaying the winning team, displays a pie chart indicating the relative likelihood that each qualified team will win.

The way this simplistic model works is that it compares regular season records of opposing teams to determine the likely outcome of the game. In addition, it is sensitive to those teams that will have home field advantage, and uses regular season home and away records respectively. For example, if a game between Team A and Team B is being played at Team A's field, it will compare team A's home record to team B's away record. The model generates a probability (using Monte Carlo Simulation) that team A will win the game.

An additional feature that the model offers is the ability for the reviewer to adjust the influence of regular season records on the outcome of playoff games. The slider bar at the top of the display allows for this in real-time. For example, an influence of 1.0 (slider bar all the way to the right) indicates that the regular season record has a strong influence on the outcome of playoff games. An influence of 0.0 indicates that regular season records have NO influence on playoff games, and anything can happen (i.e. opposing teams each have a 50/50 chance of winning regardless of regular season records).

Just by the nature of the playoff schedule, those teams receiving a "bye" week end up having a significant advantage over the wild card teams (because they have less opportunity to lose).  Click on an individual pie slice to assign a team the winner of a particular game, and see how their chances in subsequent games change. To clear this filter, click on the white space next to the pie slice. The teams displayed in this model are those that are scheduled to play in the NFL playoffs.

Model Interaction

  • Move the slider bar to select the influence of regular season records on playoff performance
  • Hover over a pie slice to view the team and probability of win
  • Click on a slice to select that team as winner of a game, and to adjust likely outcomes of subsequent games
  • Click more than one pie slice to continue to filter; clear filters by clicking next to selected charts

Contact Apofacy Solutions to learn more about how predictive modeling can help your business manage its risk.  <Contact Us>

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